The Hyper Cycle age & Relevance of convetional laws framework

The conventional laws or rather understanding of human nature that has shaped behaviour/conduct of Nations, Companies, Economies seems to have become invalid in the Information Age,

It is unchartered water for Political leaders, Economists, Diplomats, Generals in time of hypercycle information age. Everyone is having Gandalf the grey moment of having no memory of this place.

The Information Age is more of a Hyper age. We are hyper-connected through social media, communication, supply chains. It is not just limited to visual/digital world. The physicals world is also in hypercycle mode. We are hyperlinked through well oiled and efficient global supply chains. We deal with hyper-efficient machines !!

In classical times when the majority of laws were framed or guidance books were written, there were significant natural constraints. The constraints were of reach, time and scale. These constraints created natural roadblocks for anything to become hyper or creating hyper end impacts on society. In other words, the constraints created logical checks and balances on its own. News used to be late by a day. Freedom of expression was limited to some corner in a town or village. Even a super biased Oped had no special effect of manufactured reality. Movies were movies and news was news and currency printing was limited by the gold reserve. Production efficiency was curtailed by inefficiency in supply chain/logistics. Guns were not automatic with 1000s of rounds.

Laws/rules related to freedom of expression, trade, gun ownership, monetary policy were built with that framework.

The hyper age changed all. The first glimpse of hyper age damage became visible on October 18, 1987, when twenty-three major world stock markets experienced a sharp decline ranging from 20% to 45% with estimated losses of $1.7 trillion.

And it was just beginning.

Globalisation which used be a function of broken supply chains and has limited impact earlier started getting into the hyper mode with the signing of NAFTA and went into supercycle with China entry in WTO.

It was not that only economists were caught flatfooted. The hyper age has been making every framework invalid.

The second amendment in time of automatic guns with 1000s of rounds! The second amendment in the US constitution equalised men in words of Samuel Colt. He famously proclaimed that if god made men, he (the gunsmith) made them equal. Guns balanced and equalised power between the state and its citizens, between powerful and marginalised. As you might be all-powerful but a single bullet can always change the power dynamics or rather balance the power dynamics. Gun balanced the power. Be it the tyranny of the state, landlords or powerful, the marginals had the power restored through a barrel of a gun.

However, automatics took the power away from powerful and marginal and handed it on a platter to lunatics. Lunatics with a gun with 1000s of round, put the whole framework upside down and suddenly the second amendment became a dangerous clause putting the life of so many innocents at risk.

Freedom of expression in a time of selective editing, deep fake and reach to billions of people in no time! Every falsehood getting amplified as news are no longer news but more of opinions. Freedom of expression is good but what about falsehood with selective editing and super reach of 10000x times than a normal tabaloid. Earlier freedom of expression was limited to speaking at somesomeplaceh limited reach, limited reach, no selective editing and extra shows. Can the rules designed for those times remain valid in the time of twitter !!

Frictionless trade in times of cost-free capital and an unlimited appetite for losses! Globalisation and free trade helped redistribute wealth as it brought down costs and enabled even poor to access goods at a much lower cost as it allows access to labour from all over the world. But frictionless trade-in time of free capital and unlimited appetite of losses!! In today's times, small and marginal businesses are no match to large corporations which can get credit at almost 0% ( zero percent) interest rates and can support losses for years. The resulting scenario can be very damaging to communities and societies at large. Its no longer free trade at work but rather havoc created by free unlimited capital.

Conducting diplomacy in a time of trending Twitter trends against imaginary topics! Planning art of war in times of hyper 24/7 news and trending social media. Earlier nations were led by its leaders. Today's leaders are led by hysteria in the newsroom and social media! An event happens, significant or insignificant in perspective to a Nation but it gets picked by masses and then become all outrage in the newsroom and suddenly leaders who always looking to please masses, start acting as per mass hysteria. The challenge is that there can be hysteria of any kind. Some times its local population who is supporting a cause while international media is totally against and some times international media is all gaga while the local population is not so happy. Pursuing a global image or following people will? The rules of engagement are no longer valid in the hypercycle world.

The laws of economics, governance, diplomacy etc which all have helped leaders/nations/business/economist to understand the world and shape the behaviour, are no longer valid in the internet age. Its high time that all theories and gospel truths are relooked and re-validated otherwise we are at sea with a broken compass. The journey is not going to be pleasant at all.

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